Kaspersky Lab has released its forecast for the information technology threat landscape for this decade (2011 – 2020). Kaspersky bases this forecast on an analysis of the principal changes too issues inwards the sphere of information technology safety over the past times decade, every bit good every bit emerging trends inwards the evolution of personal computers, mobile phones too operating systems.
According to the company’s analysts, the most important trends of the terminal x years (2001-2010) were:
- Mobility too miniaturisation. Smaller too smaller devices tin instantly access the Internet from virtually whatsoever betoken on the globe; making wireless networks the most pop method of connecting to the web.
- The transformation of virus writing into cybercrime (Crime committed using a figurer too the cyberspace to pocket a person’s identity, sell contraband, stem victims or disrupt organisations amongst malevolent programs).
- Windows maintaining its leading position as a vendor of operating systems for personal computers.
- Intense contest inwards the mobile platform market with no clear-cut leader.
- Social networks too search engines – the primary services of today’s Internet.
- Internet shopping – this sector already generates revenues that dwarf the annual budgets of approximately countries.
The defining characteristic of the adjacent decade volition last the halt of Windows’ domination of user operating systems. Though Microsoft’s brainchild volition stay the primary draw of piece of work concern platform, every twenty-four threescore minutes catamenia users volition stimulate got access to an ever-expanding diverseness of alternative operating systems. Notably, fifty-fifty instantly the number of devices accessing the Internet via Windows too non-Windows platforms are almost the same, amongst the latter fifty-fifty occasionally exceeding their Microsoft counterparts.
The growing number of novel operating systems volition acquit on the procedure of threat creation – cybercriminals volition non last able to practise malicious code for large numbers of platforms. This leaves them amongst ii options: either target multiple operating systems too stimulate got many private devices nether their control, or specialise inwards Windows-based attacks on corporations. The 2nd variant volition in all probability appeal to them to a greater extent than – past times 2020, targeting private users volition give-up the ghost much to a greater extent than complex every bit the emerging tendency of making payments electronically too using online banking volition continue, all the same biometric user identification too payment protection systems volition give-up the ghost the norm.
The coming changes inwards operating systems too their specifications volition acquit on virus writing techniques every bit these novel systems evolve. Many cybercriminals who used to target Windows devices volition stimulate got to give-up the ghost proficient at exploiting the new-generation operating systems. To retain their ‘place inwards the sun’, today’s cybercriminal volition require to enlist the aid of members of the younger generation who are capable of writing malicious code for the novel platforms. However, this state of affairs cannot prevail forever too nosotros may good run into ‘turf wars’ betwixt unlike hackers too hacker groups.
Cybercrime inwards 2020 volition almost assuredly separate into ii groups. One grouping volition specialise inwards attacks on businesses, sometimes to-order. Commercial espionage, database theft too corporate reputation-smearing attacks volition last much inwards need on the dark market. Hackers too corporate information technology specialists volition appear upward each other on the virtual battlefield. State anti-cybercrime agencies volition in all probability last involved inwards the procedure also too volition stimulate got to bargain predominantly amongst Windows platforms, inwards add-on to the latest versions of traditional *nix systems.
The 2nd grouping of cybercriminals volition target those things that influence our everyday lives, such every bit carry systems too other services. Hacking such systems too stealing from them, making costless role of them too the removal too changing of personal information nearly customers’ activities volition last the principal focus of attending of the novel generation of hackers, who volition brand a living this way.
The tendency that has seen the Internet give-up the ghost both a pop resources for communication, amusement too news, too a peculiarly designed tool for Internet commerce too online payments, etc. volition continue. The ‘online user-base’ volition expand to include many mobile too smart devices capable of using the spider web to telephone commutation or transfer information without the require for human intervention.
Botnets, 1 of today’s most strong information technology threats, volition evolve dramatically. They volition comprise to a greater extent than too to a greater extent than mobile too Internet-enabled devices, too zombie computers every bit nosotros know them volition give-up the ghost a thing of the past.
The tools too technologies used inwards the plain of communications volition undergo massive change. These changes volition run into greatly increased information transfer rates too enhancements that volition brand the virtual communication sense much closer to that of real-life – past times 2020, communication via the Internet amongst the aid of a keyboard volition last the stuff of onetime movies, important spammers volition require to seek out novel ways of delivering their unwanted correspondence to addressees across the globe. The offset stride the spammers volition stimulate got is to modify from targeting desktops to mobile devices. The book of mobile spam volition grow exponentially, spell the toll of Internet-based communications volition shrink due to the intensive evolution of cellular communication systems. As a result, users volition last less probable to worry nearly unwanted advertising material.
The onetime adage ‘Knowledge is power’ volition last to a greater extent than relevant than e'er before. The grapple for the agency to collect, manage, store too role information, nearly everything too everybody, volition define the nature of threats for the adjacent decade. Therefore the occupation of privacy protection volition last 1 of the primal issues of the decade.
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